The Doorman Fallacy

What does a doorman actually do?

Opening the door is only part of the job. There’s also recognising guests, finding a taxi and noticing when something is wrong.

Rory Sutherland called replacing the person with an automatic door the doorman fallacy.

Read the idea

Rory Sutherland, Alchemy, 2019.

A doorman in a top hat stands in profile beside clipped shrubs in black planters outside a hotel entrance.
The visible task is not always the whole job.“The Silent Sentinel” by atelierbyvineeth , Dublin, on Unsplash 

The work beyond the task.

The fallacy is judging a role by its most visible task and overlooking the other work it carries.

  • Signal

    A person's presence tells customers they matter

  • Deterrence

    A person watching changes behaviour

  • Judgment

    Spotting the case the script does not cover, and escalating it

  • Memory

    Knowing the regular, the history, the exception

  • Absorption

    Taking anger or confusion so it does not land elsewhere

  • Slack

    Spare capacity that only shows in a crisis

Before automating a role

The ledger

Following what happens after organisations cut roles for AI.

View all cases

22 cases in the ledger, those with a reported outcome first. Each has its sources, an update history and a date for its next review, and cuts that hold up are followed as closely as those that are reversed.
TeleperformanceFrance · Customer service3,300 roles to go in an AI-linked restructuring.Reported outcome: Strained.Read case
ABN AmroNetherlands · Bank support work5,200 net roles cut by 2028 as AI takes on some tasks.Reported outcome: Holding.Read case
CCFFrance · Bank operations1,250 roles cut; CEO says AI removed back-office jobs.Reported outcome: Holding.Read case
Mercado LibreArgentina · UX writing119 UX and content roles cut as designers use AI to write.Reported outcome: Strained.Read case
IBMUnited States · Human resourcesHR partners fell from 1,500 to 350 as AskHR took over.Reported outcome: Holding.Read case